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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Economists #2
- Economists know more about how the fragments of society work than anyone. In school they are taught to break down the economy into its tiniest parts and to quantify each minutiae so it can become part of a formula. Once done those econometric formulas should become a viable equation to predict how the total economy will react when a change occurs to any part of the formula.Since economists ...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Evaluation i
- An insane person cannot evaluate an insane evaluation system.As you know I have been trying to restore sanity to the insane premises Wall Street has been teaching its brokers and you for all these years. Their insanity has become so pervasive that it has become conventional wisdom. The brokerage houses have taught everyone to act insanely and to think that what they are doing is sane....
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Enron cure
- Let's hope you did not have any of the Enron stock. Maybe you know someone who did and lost everything, but you certainly might know several people who owned stock that lost almost everything. They probably aren't talking about it.According to Investor's Business Daily newspaper there are 1,387 companies that lost more than 90% of their value from the highest point during the last 5 years. ...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Emotional involvement
- I'll bet with almost anyone that has stocks or mutual funds in his portfolio that he has losers, but he won't sell them because he "likes them" or some similar excuse. This is the philosophy of a loser.You cannot become emotionally involved with anything you have bought whether it is stocks, mutual funds, collectibles, real estate, etc. etc. When you see the value of these things heading do...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Economists
- In today's volatile and confusing stock markets everyone is searching for a guru who knows which way the market is going and when. Ask any economist and he will have an answer. Ask 2 economists and you will have 2 answers. Ask 3 economists - ad infinitum.At the Federal Reserve Board we have Mr. Greenspan and all his economist Governors talking at each other about how to best micromanage the...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - How much information do you need?
- You have decided to buy some stock or mutual funds, but wonder which one to buy. You need more information so you call your broker for advice. A so-called "full service" broker will bury you with all kinds of reports, analysis sheets and other pretty pieces of paper, but will probably try to sell you something that makes him the most commission.Let's see. What does Wall Street thi...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Hold em and fold em
- When most analysts, financial planners, fund specialists and investors try to decide whether to buy a particular stock they immediately go to the financial statements to determine the growth potential of the company. Numbers and more numbers. Then management analysis and industry speculation. Unless you are an experienced financial analyst (and there are not very many good ones) the numbers in the...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Gurgle gurgle
- Caught in a whirlpool and being sucked under. No life vest or other device to save you. Gurgle, gurgle. Down you go.This last couple of weeks in the stock market kinda feels like that whirlpool when you look at your financial statements. Of course, your broker will tell you this is a "normal correction and it gives you a chance to buy more so you can dollar cost average. He could be right a...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - The golden goose is sick
- It is finally catching up with them. The brokerage companies I mean. For years they have been feeding bad food to their flock and now the flock is rebelling. The customer has been low man on the totem pole for too long. That food has been the disinformation that has caused customers to lose large sums of money.Last year there were 33,000 brokerage company recommendations for thousands of st...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Hill of hope
- Just about now everyone is confused as to which way the stock market is going to go - up or down. For the past 3 years it has been headed south, but the Wall Street experts have told us that the market never goes down 4 years in a row so this has to be an up year. But no guarantees.The old saying is that the stock market climbs a wall of worry. We watch sharp moves up followed by days, some...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - The great stock market secret
- When the stock market is going up and all your stocks and mutual funds are making money you feel like a genius. It is too bad that some folks don't remember what happened in 2000. Of course, right now we are in one of those genius phases.Your broker and financial planner are encouraging you to buy, buy, buy. And I can't fault that at this time. You remember back in 2000 how many times they ...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Gold fever
- Right now there doesn't seem to be any "gold fever". Very few are out looking to strike it rich in this sector.Way back when at Sutter's Mill in California the discovery of gold was accidental. One of Sutter's employees picked up a shiny stone out of the stream and suddenly the fever caught everyone. Gold fever is one of the most catching and dangerous "diseases" that has afflicted man sinc...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - The holy grail (of investment)
- Every year I go to the Money Show in Orlando, Florida. Thousands attend. It is mostly an older crowd with the youngsters about 40 years of age. I have been saying for years that until you have lost enough money trying to make a fortune you will not become serious about investing. The under 40's are shooting for the moon and it has finally dawned on the over 40's (maybe it's the over 50's) that the...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Hedge funds
- You read and hear a lot about hedge funds. Unfortunately, most of what you hear is negative because it comes from the major media that has an interest in reporting negatives about them because the major media is supported by so-called standard mutual funds and brokerage companies that spend big bucks for advertising. Hedge funds are NOT allowed to advertise.First of all a hedge fund is almo...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Good news?
- As the man said, "I've got some good news and I've got some bad news. What do you want to hear first?" It was replied, "Tell me the good news first". The good news is that they are going to make some changes in the mutual fund industry reporting to help the investor and the bad news is it isn't going to make any difference in your bottom line.It seems that us small investors are getting the...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Getting even
- I know there are a lot of you out there who would like to "get even" with the stock market. Many are on the diet of "I hope, I hope". As a professional trader I can tell you that diet will make you very sick.If you play any game of chance like poker you know you are not going to win every hand. In fact you are going to lose more hands than you win, but at the end of the evening you can stil...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Duct tape
- Did you run out to buy that duct tape yet? Don't forget the plastic sheeting, bottles of water, canned food and a couple of books to read. What are you waiting for? I know - things to get better so you can resume your normal life style.While you were waiting did you happen to notice what is happening to your investment portfolio, your retirement account? For the past 3 years it has needed d...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Duck
- Duck! No I don't mean a quack, quack. I meant get down, look out for a huge blob of brown stuff is heading your way.This one is so large it is going to make Enron and Worldcom look like Boy Scouts stealing cookies at a picnic. As a result of these latest revelations we are going to have to find someone new to blame. So far the blame has been on the World Trade Center tragedy and dishonest e...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Downdraft
- For the year 2000 we have seen hundreds of mutual funds lose 40%, 50% and more of their value. This does not seem right since the fund is supposed to be managed by a professional. How can this "professional" do such a bad job? More than half of the funds this year will not out perform the S&P500 index which closed down about 10%.What is going on?When you put your money in a mutual fu...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Dont fight the fed
- One of the great truisms of Wall Street is "Don't fight the Fed". For the long term investors this has resulted in greater profits. When the Federal Reserve Board hikes interest rates look out and when the do it 3 times in a row it is called "3 jumps and a stumble". We have just gone through the stumble and it has been costly.When you go back in history you will find that the stock market h...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Dont ask your broker
- Unfortunately, most of you who are reading my column are suffering some substantial losses in the stock market. Whether it is mutual funds or individual stocks everything with mighty few exceptions is going down. Maybe you are just giving back some nice profits, but maybe it is beginning to bite into your original principal.You are wondering what should I do? I know, I'll call my broker. He...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Dollar cost averaging
- Dollar cost averaging is one of the most popular ideas in the investment community. Everyone seems to like it and it has become a watchword among stock and mutual fund brokers. If it is properly done you will make money, if not you will lose money or at best stay even. Let's examine the basic premise behind this method of investing.You decide to buy shares in Mouse Trap, Ltd.(symbol CHZ), a...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Does japan matter?
- For the last 12 years we have seen the Japanese stock market slowly sinking from a high of 38,000 to about 8,000, more than a 75% loss and very close to the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Why should we care about their stock market?Please understand that the stock market price is a reflection of the overall economy of a country. Every major country has a stock market index relat...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Dividends
- When is a dividend not a dividend?The latest thing "conservative" brokers are preaching these days is to buy stocks that pay dividends. Everyone likes dividends. I know I do, but when Wall Street tells me something I am automatically suspicious because they lie to me every day. Is this a new scam? Let's take a look.When you buy a bond or a CD at the bank it pays interest and is a rea...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Diversification
- Wall Street's watchword has always been diversification, but what does it mean and why do they say it?The standard Wall Street definition is flexible because each broker or financial planner will vary the portfolio based on your age and income. They say that the younger you are the more risk you should take and the older you are the less risk. They design a group of individual stocks, mutua...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Dispelling illusions of the stock market
- How can you dispel an illusion unless you look directly at it? The magician distracts the eye with one hand while he does his manipulation with the other. You are looking in the wrong place and not seeing what is actually happening.Wall Street has mastered this move even beyond the wildest dreams of Houdini. Investors have become so mesmerized by the smoke and mirrors that they believe the ...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Investment discipline
- One of the great "secrets" of successful people is discipline and it doesn't make any difference whether it is manufacturing, processing, servicing or investing in the stock market.Before you can have that discipline you must have a successful plan and stick with it. If the method you use does not work or results in smaller profits it should be abandoned and a better one found. For the aver...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Direction
- It is difficult to make money in a bull market, but what do you do when you are in a bear market? In what direction should you go not only to make money but to protect what you have from loss?Almost immediately investors think what should I buy that will help me reach my financial goals? This answer may not be the one you will like. It is really not important what you buy as long as you kno...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Investment research - the dalbar study
- Very few people, even professionals, have heard of the Dalbar Study that originated in 1995. Its purpose is to determine the profitability of trading for the small investor of mutual funds. Their results are even worse than I thought.The BuyNHolders will love the results as it "proves" that buying and holding is better than trying to switch to so-called "hot" funds. My readers know I think ...
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- 2007-11-13 22:16:19 - Traders, defend against the dreaded death spiral.
- It has often been said that there is only two ways to get hurt really bad on a stock trade, getting caught in a "death spiral" by not using DTM: Decisive Trade Management in the way of stop loses and having a stock halted on you. Halts you have zero control over. Death spirals are of your own making if you do not practice the use of stop loses.Very simply stated Decisive Trade Management is...
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